The article starts by saying and showing with a graph, that people are now underestimating prices more than they used to.
It then ends with this quote:
> If you ever find yourself on the game show, the lesson from this research is that whatever you think the price is, your estimate should, as the host says, “come on down.”
Is it just me, or is this advice backwards, and based on the data and graph, you should add around 15% to your estimate to not overshoot the 20% average under-estimate?
None of those things are the reason. The reason is simple. The Price is Right use MSRP. Back in the day, with only a few outlets, it was hard to get something less than MSRP.
Today, it's almost impossible to find something at MSRP. There are so many outlets and our information on pricing is so good, stores have to compete by offering discounts.
Wasn't "The Price Is Right" changed several years back specifically to make the game less predictable-- using less common products, for example, or changing the options on cars? https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a7922/price-is-right-p...
For the most entertaining version of the answer, watch this really cool movie (1) with math, intrigue, and daytime television all rolled into one. It’s called The Perfect Bid. (Not affiliated just a fan.) I think I watched it on Amazon or Netflix.
Doesn't inflation directly lead to a decrease in the percentage of the likeliness you are going to be able to hit the correct number for the same kind of products?
Also I think Apple and China kinda destroyed the whole "relative value, everything only has a 5% markup compared to their cost" price evaluation model. You know the thing that used to allow people like our Grandparents to be able to afford things like the American Dream on a single poor person's salary.
That's my theory anyways. Or maybe people are just getting lazy and not studying as hard as they used to. Or perhaps Bob Barker finally kicked his cocaine habit and no longer needs to keep taking the bribes?
I worked in the Casino Technology industry and learned that Casino's generally prefer non-skill-based games in their game product line. This makes sense when predicting the financial outlook, based on customer behavior and spend profiles. In my opinion, in order to 'give out' less to their game participants, they most likely provided ways to randomize the win-ratio so that consumers win less, so it is less "skill-based"
How about: "People don't care as much about the TV show anymore, so they have less practice before participating"
From the research: 'contestants have increasingly underestimated the true price of the good over time with an increasingly greater magnitude, suggesting that individuals have become more inattentive to prices.'
Does it suggest that? Or does it suggest that underestimating is a better strategy?
I loved that a guy was able to win a Tesla because their pricing is so transparent. Yeah the prices change often but at any given time the price you get is the price everyone gets, no haggling.
I would guess it's cumulative inflation of the nominal value: if something is 500 and then 750 later there's more numbers to guess in the space altogether.
Is there any app that allows to track prices in real stores over time? Something like CamelCamelCamel for real stores (not only US) would be great, I'd be down to input prices manually if I could track them over time. Something more than an excel sheet tho.
Inflation, ya Boomer. You didn't notice because 20 years ago you purchased the last of all the appliances and things you'd need until your death day.
I’d love to see some data on whether MSRP and average actual price paid have diverged over the years. It does feel like everything is perpetually “discounted” these days. If Price is Right is using the manufacturer’s list price, this would help explain why contestants undershoot more now — because the prices they tend to see advertised are in fact ~20% lower.