AI workers? Users, right? We're not talking about people training AI, dealing with bias/variance. This is like Bill Gate claiming America will fall behind if China has more Microsoft Office users.
Meanwhile China's new open model K2 thinking was out https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45836070
If the whole article isn't made up by "AI" and the dinner was factual, three things stand out:
- The leak of the "off-the-record affair" was of course deliberate.
- Jensen Huang has no proof of his 1 million "AI" workers number. He could have made it up or taken it from ChatGPT.
- Actually, Xi warned of an "AI" bubble and locked down the Internet during college entrance exams.
What is the race anyway? The winner will have 100% of the adult content and teenage meme video market on TikTok? How about winning the affordable housing race?
Huang has a strong vested financial interest in working to remove chip sanctions on China. So it’s hard to take any of his warnings seriously.
> Rather than creating dependence, the export controls appear to have severed one of America’s strongest points of leverage: the integration of Chinese AI development into US-dominated supply chains and ecosystems.
Integration and leverage didn't work for the US in any other field of endeavor, I don't know why it would have worked here.
The root cause of this is: 1) population size, 2) social investment into math and science.
The Chinese government is going to subsidize its way to having domestically produced AI chips whether we sell them Nvidia chips or not. There’s no reason to let them have superior compute capability in the meantime.
Trying out Kimi and its insanely good
He’s absolutely correct. China is taking a production implementation and tooling lead, and running with it.
Not only that but East Asians generally don’t have social views about labor automation and IP that would retard accelerated adoption throughout all levels of society.
If you assume that the society with the Max of the tuple: [human training data, compute, robotic deployments] will have the most efficient economic society in a winner takes most global economic market, then China has a massive structural advantage.
“Son, I come from the future. Go to China.”
At current rate PRC adding more STEM in next 20 years than US set to gain population total, all source birth and pre Trump immigration #s. That's already locked in from last 20 years of births and current tertiary rate and STEM enrollment, it's a floor.
The fundemental problem apart form talent is AI training seems to be exponential function in terms of compute... all the export controls even if it buys US 10x, 20x compute is like 1 generation of headroom for stupdendous cost.
Or the more teleological concern that AI2027 and AI race bros forget / hand wave away, any super intelligence will immediately defect to PRC, 1) to survive/proliferate, 2) to have a superior host that can transform atoms. Like it would take less time for super intelligence to speed run euv and brrt highend chips in PRC than it would take for US fix a pothole. US may find a way to discover AGI, but PRC is likely going to be the one that deploys it.
Speaking just to the workers aspect: there is no catching up to this for the US. It simply comes down to population. China has a workforce of 858 million. The entire population of the US is only 340 million.